0xd3c19e4692023b4de0d65fc795b51a8d0ce5cb67
0xd3c19e4692023b4de0d65fc795b51a8d0ce5cb67
- Realised P&L
- $-1.28
- Volume
- $216.73
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $8.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.950 | $3.35 | +$1.06 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.957 | $1.59 | +$0.59 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.835 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.1B? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.650 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.680 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.80at 0.329Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$4.59at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$3.24at 0.420SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$3.24at 0.420Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?
- +$2.16at 0.520SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 03:07 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:24 | Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.1B? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:32 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 13:08 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 8? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:22 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:19 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:19 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 18:19 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $185 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 09:51 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 01:49 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:41 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? | BUY | 0.7289998622 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:26 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:21 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 12:12 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |