operationcastle
0xd3a6e523c440f94f9259398fbcf7b5cc5ccffd55
- Realised P&L
- $552.1k
- Volume
- $16.57M
- Markets traded
- 1,031
- Open portfolio
- $20.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,031
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.6kat 0.400Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$65.5kat 0.211Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$64.8kat 0.624Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$57.9kat 0.058Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?
- +$51.4kat 0.221Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 00:27 | Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.6614077638 | $162.20 |
| 08-18 02:22 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.888 | $4.9k |
| 08-05 03:46 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.1399905022 | $3.3k |
| 08-05 03:46 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.1399994115 | $3.5k |
| 08-04 20:07 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5376544627 | $899.61 |
| 08-04 00:26 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.2809153299 | $1.1k |
| 08-04 00:26 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.29 | $188.50 |
| 06-10 02:22 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.2k |
| 06-10 02:10 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7999865594 | $4.8k |
| 06-10 01:21 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.72 | $7.58 |
| 06-10 00:56 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.58 | $212.89 |
| 06-10 00:56 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.58 | $212.89 |
| 06-10 00:56 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.5899671432 | $727.21 |
| 06-09 01:27 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.835 | $83.50 |
| 06-08 04:06 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.44 | $437.36 |