PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

operationcastle

0xd3a6e523c440f94f9259398fbcf7b5cc5ccffd55

Realised P&L
$565.4k
Volume
$16.46M
Markets traded
1,023
Open portfolio
$21.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded1,023
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.6500.665$6.6k+$150.00
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.9710.978$3.6k+$23.90
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0570.086$2.0k+$665.08
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.2200.455$2.0k+$1.0k
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.4500.605$1.6k+$405.67
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes0.1300.155$1.6k+$250.00
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0350.046$1.5k+$365.29
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? · Yes0.2820.325$1.4k+$188.16
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.9830.994$1.1k+$11.13
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.5000.255$156.45$150.32
Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July? · Yes0.0200.024$39.19+$6.53
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July? · Yes0.0400.057$32.56+$9.71
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? · No0.2900.330$19.26+$2.33
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.1700.380$16.16+$8.92
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.5550.001$1.81$2.0k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-04 00:26Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?BUY0.2809153299$1.1k
08-04 00:26Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?BUY0.29$188.50
06-10 02:22Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.7$3.2k
06-10 02:10Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.7999865594$4.8k
06-10 01:21Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.72$7.58
06-10 00:56Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.58$212.89
06-10 00:56Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.58$212.89
06-10 00:56Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.5899671432$727.21
06-09 01:27Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY0.835$83.50
06-08 04:06Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL0.44$437.36
06-08 01:59Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL0.55$905.28
06-03 18:19Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.998$11.3k
06-03 03:31Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.33$6.60
06-02 04:33Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.27$114.10
05-31 18:54Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY0.012$0.56
Trader operationcastle · PolyBot