lioijnnn
0xd2dbdf25a86a809ac7fce7cab2d437c57a60f400
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $154.8k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $224.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.095 | $119.51 | −$69.19 |
| Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.052 | $105.00 | −$41.00 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner · Anyone's Legend | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.24 |
| Hawks vs. Timberwolves · Hawks | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$910.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.500Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.620Lakers vs. Cavaliers
- +$68.70at 0.210Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$25.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
- +$24.50at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 06:26 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $67.20 |
| 06-27 06:23 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $63.00 |
| 06-27 06:21 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $56.70 |
| 06-27 06:19 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $53.55 |
| 04-10 12:54 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.15 | $11.27 |
| 03-25 13:06 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 03-25 07:41 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.51 | $484.50 |
| 03-19 09:17 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.618 | $0.06 |
| 01-30 03:12 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $7.4k |
| 01-30 03:10 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $7.4k |
| 01-30 03:08 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $6.1k |
| 01-30 03:07 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.1k |
| 01-30 03:05 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.0k |
| 01-30 03:04 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.0k |
| 01-30 03:03 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.0k |