PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xd2add695fc2acb7d3987dbaaf3ee6a728ae86835

Realised P&L
$102.76
Volume
$1.2k
Markets traded
10
Open portfolio
$199.84

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar8.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded10
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration95.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration77.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1611.000$154.47+$129.60
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic0.7700.939$24.38+$4.38
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.977$10.56+$0.61
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? · Yes0.3400.355$10.43+$0.43
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00$5.00
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? · Yes0.6100.000$0.00$4.50
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes0.0230.000$0.00$19.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-13 19:04Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?BUY0.609999962$4.50
06-13 19:03Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY0.1399999787$5.00
06-01 18:28Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?BUY0.7699999935$20.00
05-27 20:11Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?BUY0.3402881547$10.00
05-11 14:33Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1609999953$24.87
05-04 16:52Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9199999334$9.95
05-01 16:45Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?BUY0.0230100033$19.90
04-30 19:51Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY0.32$9.95
04-28 19:32Will Sandisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.9699999903$9.95
04-28 19:28Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?BUY0.5899999437$9.95