0xd2add695fc2acb7d3987dbaaf3ee6a728ae86835
- Realised P&L
- $102.76
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $199.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.161 | 1.000 | $154.47 | +$129.60 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.770 | 0.939 | $24.38 | +$4.38 |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.977 | $10.56 | +$0.61 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.355 | $10.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.75at 0.600Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.971Will Sandisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$-10.15at 0.327Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 19:04 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.609999962 | $4.50 |
| 06-13 19:03 | Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 18:28 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.7699999935 | $20.00 |
| 05-27 20:11 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? | BUY | 0.3402881547 | $10.00 |
| 05-11 14:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1609999953 | $24.87 |
| 05-04 16:52 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999334 | $9.95 |
| 05-01 16:45 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.0230100033 | $19.90 |
| 04-30 19:51 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.32 | $9.95 |
| 04-28 19:32 | Will Sandisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.9699999903 | $9.95 |
| 04-28 19:28 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999437 | $9.95 |