0xD2684fD9b69Ec4589d768D33884A20C0720E2De8-1773632615528
0xd2684fd9b69ec4589d768d33884a20c0720e2de8
- Realised P&L
- $5.38
- Volume
- $73.96
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $10.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.945 | $1.87 | +$0.27 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.968 | 0.967 | $1.80 | −$0.00 |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.974 | 0.978 | $1.50 | +$0.01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · No | 0.954 | 1.000 | $1.46 | +$0.07 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.295 | $1.28 | −$0.72 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.444 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.435 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.065 | $0.39 | −$1.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.01at 0.351Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$1.23at 0.570Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?
- +$0.06at 0.995Trump out as President by March 31?
- +$0.02at 0.960Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 06:49 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 10-15 02:08 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9679995483 | $1.80 |
| 10-08 06:42 | Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.9739999961 | $1.49 |
| 09-24 02:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3399999773 | $2.10 |
| 09-18 06:49 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 05:55 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4119998368 | $1.00 |
| 06-12 05:46 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? | BUY | 0.55999986 | $1.60 |
| 06-05 03:15 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999339 | $2.30 |
| 05-28 06:16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8099999747 | $1.60 |
| 05-22 03:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9539993219 | $1.39 |
| 03-30 06:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599998673 | $5.21 |
| 03-25 06:49 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $5.48 |
| 03-25 06:49 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $5.48 |
| 03-18 02:24 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.9909998984 | $5.23 |