fafish
0xd1e17931541d148dccd2ff9fc6ea6472ac322c7a
- Realised P&L
- $2.62
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $6.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.083 | $2.79 | −$2.21 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.154 | $1.93 | −$1.07 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.123 | $1.40 | −$0.60 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.035 | $0.43 | −$1.57 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.075 | $0.39 | −$0.61 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.361 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? · No | 0.158 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? · No | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.90at 0.290Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.68at 0.427Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?
- +$1.48at 0.577Valencia vs. Panathinaikos
- +$1.46at 0.577NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
- +$1.40at 0.593Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 22:08 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31? | BUY | 0.1489999999 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 19:09 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5809998902 | $2.00 |
| 07-17 17:27 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.405 | $2.32 |
| 07-14 13:27 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1979998432 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 13:25 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1739998695 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 13:25 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 13:20 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.42 |
| 07-14 13:20 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.142 | $1.33 |
| 07-14 13:19 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.215 | $1.87 |
| 07-11 20:44 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5349999777 | $3.00 |
| 07-05 01:55 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3609999672 | $5.00 |
| 06-17 12:34 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 12:34 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? | BUY | 0.15799989 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 12:29 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-11 14:15 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1149999005 | $1.00 |