033033033
0xd1c769317bd15de7768a70d0214cf0bbcc531d2b
- Realised P&L
- $312.1k
- Volume
- $178.07M
- Markets traded
- 872
- Open portfolio
- $3.20M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded872
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $2.07M | +$1.0k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $828.0k | +$863.20 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $163.6k | −$161.11 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $50.0k | +$25.01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $29.9k | −$10.67 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.985 | 0.989 | $20.4k | +$72.19 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.988 | 0.992 | $19.2k | +$64.16 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $15.8k | +$7.89 |
| Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.0k | +$0.52 |
| Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $388.81 | +$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.7kat 0.980Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$9.3kat 0.996Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$8.5kat 0.997MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$8.2kat 0.997US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$6.9kat 0.995Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 01:35 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $211.3k |
| 10-31 10:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $494.50 |
| 10-31 10:09 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.0k |
| 10-31 04:18 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | BUY | 0.992 | $784.82 |
| 10-31 04:01 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.4k |
| 10-31 04:00 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.2k |
| 10-30 12:02 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.91 |
| 10-30 12:02 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $797.16 |
| 10-30 12:01 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.6k |
| 10-30 12:01 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9989981481 | $2.7k |
| 10-30 12:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $47.06 |
| 10-30 12:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.6k |
| 10-30 10:03 | Will XRP reach $3.20 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.27 |
| 10-30 10:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $991.61 |
| 10-30 10:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $989.01 |