0xd1c508fd5e703c65a5d242e5d8218dc0a40166c2
0xd1c508fd5e703c65a5d242e5d8218dc0a40166c2
- Realised P&L
- $-8.99
- Volume
- $230.76
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $2.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.805 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.245 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.82at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
- +$2.21at 0.480Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 21:51 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 18:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 09:26 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7789998567 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 01:24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 03:32 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 07:30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 10:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 02:14 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 17:36 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7039998536 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 20:30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 22:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 09:02 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 14:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 14:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 06:45 | Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |