Kickstand7
0xd1acd3925d895de9aec98ff95f3a30c5279d08d5
- Realised P&L
- $1.57M
- Volume
- $69.57M
- Markets traded
- 1,330
- Open portfolio
- $79.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,330
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.4kat 0.325Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$126.9kat 0.005Will there be a US Government shutdown?
- +$126.0kat 0.004Was Trump hacked?
- +$123.4kat 0.033US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$83.4kat 0.005Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:16 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $98.20 |
| 10-29 17:08 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $558.55 |
| 10-29 17:08 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $767.10 |
| 10-29 17:07 | Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $113.50 |
| 10-29 17:07 | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $532.42 |
| 10-27 20:31 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.67 | $2.3k |
| 10-27 20:13 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.73 | $270.33 |
| 10-25 23:42 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0388863118 | $1.9k |
| 10-25 23:41 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0390093778 | $4.7k |
| 10-25 23:40 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0499132786 | $5.7k |
| 10-25 22:51 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6598998013 | $33.9k |
| 10-25 22:49 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.629999523 | $42.3k |
| 10-25 22:23 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7398778301 | $17.8k |
| 10-25 22:22 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.1k |
| 10-25 22:18 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5987609738 | $9.4k |