DkOYL
0xd1a63a243042d864520512fbdbd2fd20e0ab1507
- Realised P&L
- $181.7k
- Volume
- $16.21M
- Markets traded
- 108,468
- Open portfolio
- $8.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded108,468
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.820 | 0.865 | $4.36 | +$0.23 |
| Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League? · No | 0.500 | 0.375 | $2.11 | −$0.70 |
| Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? · No | 0.320 | 0.315 | $1.77 | −$0.03 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.120 | 0.120 | $0.60 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.4kat 0.002Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$7.4kat 0.220Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$5.4kat 0.003Will Trump and Putin not meet?
- +$5.3kat 0.002Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
- +$3.6kat 0.129Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 01:52 | Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.32 | $0.48 |
| 09-18 01:52 | Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League? | BUY | 0.5 | $0.75 |
| 09-18 01:51 | Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.32 | $0.48 |
| 09-18 01:51 | Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League? | BUY | 0.5 | $0.76 |
| 09-18 01:51 | Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.32 | $0.84 |
| 09-18 01:51 | Will Juventus qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.30 |
| 09-17 22:23 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 09-17 22:23 | Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.13 |
| 09-12 14:13 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 14? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.03 |
| 09-12 14:08 | Will Liam Lawson get pole position at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |
| 09-12 14:06 | Will Gabriel Bortoleto get pole position at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-12 14:02 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on September 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.97 |
| 09-12 14:02 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on September 14? | BUY | 0.97 | $2.91 |
| 09-12 14:02 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on September 14? | BUY | 0.92 | $2.76 |
| 09-12 14:02 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.97 |