234g4
0xd18210055286afe1c19d95bf7ab6d67f572b941e
- Realised P&L
- $687.93
- Volume
- $94.0k
- Markets traded
- 299
- Open portfolio
- $27.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded299
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.410Wild vs. Capitals
- +$2.2kat 0.720Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06?
- +$1.8kat 0.490Texans vs. Titans
- +$1.1kat 0.750Hawks vs. Lakers
- +$133.36at 0.024Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 13:13 | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.99 |
| 08-18 13:13 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.072 | $1.22 |
| 08-18 13:13 | Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | SELL | 0.66 | $3.29 |
| 06-18 12:26 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.62 | $31.00 |
| 06-18 12:26 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $9.15 |
| 04-25 12:54 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.55 |
| 04-25 12:54 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.55 |
| 04-13 08:03 | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL | 0.1343425 | $13.43 |
| 04-09 18:49 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.8768399453 | $12.82 |
| 03-30 16:47 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $67.50 |
| 03-30 15:59 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.67 | $67.00 |
| 03-30 15:58 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | SELL | 0.68 | $34.00 |
| 03-28 09:43 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 03-25 06:32 | US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 03-19 11:01 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.79 |