KelseyOrtiz4634
0xd1613bfcccbe2d37b4a51b53fd372777c047bcf0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $151.9k
- Markets traded
- 305
- Open portfolio
- $100.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded305
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.350 | 0.064 | $54.74 | −$246.96 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.845 | 0.852 | $22.26 | +$0.18 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.075 | $22.13 | −$33.92 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.975 | $0.97 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$431.59at 0.509Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5
- +$407.95at 0.170Will MrBeast say "MrBeast" during his next YouTube video?
- +$243.81at 0.160Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-05?
- +$233.06at 0.510Will John Oliver say "Congress" on Last Week Tonight?
- +$188.85at 0.190Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 03:56 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.798 | $321.59 |
| 04-10 17:39 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.859 | $346.18 |
| 04-10 13:32 | Central Arkansas Bears vs. North Alabama Lions | BUY | 0.478 | $249.99 |
| 04-09 10:08 | Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? | SELL | 0.23 | $100.05 |
| 04-07 20:39 | Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? | BUY | 0.21 | $91.35 |
| 03-30 17:10 | Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19? | SELL | 0.71 | $161.17 |
| 03-30 17:08 | Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19? | SELL | 0.71 | $34.08 |
| 03-29 15:23 | Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19? | BUY | 0.73 | $200.75 |
| 03-25 17:46 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $463.68 |
| 03-24 16:04 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $469.20 |
| 03-24 07:02 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $62.50 |
| 03-24 07:00 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $451.50 |
| 03-22 15:24 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $678.48 |
| 03-22 01:27 | Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? | SELL | 0.41 | $714.63 |
| 03-20 23:33 | Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.6k |