pierreifsa
0xd14dc8f4b7d02f6cd260d7d1be673835e2f1b4cc
- Realised P&L
- $-80.60
- Volume
- $849.10
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $70.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.441 | 0.403 | $24.15 | −$2.29 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 2? · No | 0.880 | 0.637 | $13.75 | −$5.25 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.480 | $12.57 | +$1.57 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.434 | $7.90 | −$2.10 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.130 | $5.78 | −$4.22 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.350 | $5.47 | +$0.47 |
| Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.060 | $0.57 | −$1.43 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on October 29? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on October 29? · No | 0.886 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.71at 0.680Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?
- +$9.71at 0.512Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?
- +$8.49at 0.912Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28?
- +$5.19at 0.490Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 26?
- +$2.06at 0.780Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:20 | Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? | BUY | 0.419999987 | $11.00 |
| 11-01 23:03 | Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | SELL | 0.75 | $11.38 |
| 11-01 17:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.8799999981 | $19.00 |
| 11-01 16:41 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 11-01 16:41 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $2.02 |
| 11-01 13:29 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 12:30 | Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.7899999941 | $12.00 |
| 11-01 10:07 | Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? | SELL | 0.943 | $12.09 |
| 10-31 22:43 | Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? | BUY | 0.7799999891 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 22:31 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.8858000853 | $116.00 |
| 10-28 17:22 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.0995024876 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 17:18 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28? | SELL | 0.9917193892 | $105.21 |
| 10-28 13:35 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.9117192949 | $96.72 |
| 10-27 23:32 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4339999935 | $20.00 |
| 10-27 20:39 | Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $111.71 |