0xd13c1B0D56e2671C7eCa9BF3CDa75C86140602f4-1768221888770
0xd13c1b0d56e2671c7eca9bf3cda75c86140602f4
- Realised P&L
- $11.1k
- Volume
- $338.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,618
- Open portfolio
- $568.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,618
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? · Yes | 0.858 | 0.835 | $322.84 | −$8.87 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.740 | $148.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? · $1,000 | 0.368 | 0.325 | $97.50 | −$13.08 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.35 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August 17 2026? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.97 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.47 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 29? · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.37 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.184Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on April 7?
- +$1.6kat 0.260Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of July 13 above $4.50?
- +$975.11at 0.047Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 on August 13?
- +$734.34at 0.050WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?
- +$260.82at 0.310S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 13:28 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in September? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-17 13:21 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $64 in September? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-17 13:19 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $37.20 |
| 09-17 12:28 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in September? | BUY | 0.93 | $204.60 |
| 09-17 12:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.87 | $33.46 |
| 09-17 12:25 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.874224151 | $173.25 |
| 09-16 15:46 | Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $999.00 |
| 09-16 13:27 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 in September? | BUY | 0.99 | $103.95 |
| 09-16 13:26 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 in September? | BUY | 0.9473560891 | $32.75 |
| 09-15 17:01 | Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $29.40 |
| 09-15 15:08 | Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9459993999 | $94.59 |
| 09-15 14:53 | Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9711058824 | $103.18 |
| 09-14 17:00 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 09-14 13:31 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 09-14 13:30 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.0k |