therealcrucenho
0xd0b76cdf68b1cc03619455b92e196c72e339fa4b
- Realised P&L
- $2.71
- Volume
- $119.4k
- Markets traded
- 740
- Open portfolio
- $814.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded740
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$229.59at 0.516Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5
- +$146.21at 0.020Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
- +$128.94at 0.380Commanders vs. Eagles
- +$127.55at 0.554Panthers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5
- +$114.84at 0.406Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 20:47 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.7199999669 | $1.74 |
| 07-08 20:29 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.831 | $1.59 |
| 07-06 16:38 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9489999966 | $12.34 |
| 07-06 14:51 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL | 0.14 | $5.48 |
| 07-06 14:49 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL | 0.15 | $2.14 |
| 07-06 13:24 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $4.85 |
| 07-06 07:31 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.7599994847 | $1.18 |
| 07-06 07:24 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.029 | $1.13 |
| 07-06 06:07 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999825 | $6.71 |
| 07-06 06:06 | Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in July? | BUY | 0.8699999933 | $5.23 |
| 07-06 06:03 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 06:01 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $7.31 |
| 07-06 04:09 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 04:00 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1209999055 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 03:57 | Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in July? | BUY | 0.88 | $3.12 |