bgfdku
0xd04002c414f7b0d231ab365191e26e09bca2cf59
- Realised P&L
- $3.16
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $1.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.81at 0.370Ethereum above $4600 on August 27?
- +$3.59at 0.880Mavericks vs. Thunder
- +$2.77at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27?
- +$2.00at 0.420Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
- +$1.32at 0.913Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 15:12 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 06-30 14:44 | Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.7735447689 | $1.00 |
| 04-25 14:12 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.925 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 14:54 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 02-25 12:31 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 25? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 02-10 15:20 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.841 | $4.00 |
| 02-10 14:00 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 02-05 01:54 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $9.00 |
| 01-23 07:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $0.97 |
| 01-23 06:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 12-01 03:05 | Mavericks vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.8799999987 | $26.30 |
| 11-20 07:12 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.982999995 | $11.00 |
| 10-22 08:14 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 22? | BUY | 0.9399999906 | $4.00 |
| 10-22 08:14 | Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025? | SELL | 0.9825775076 | $25.86 |
| 10-22 08:14 | Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025? | BUY | 0.9866221357 | $25.98 |