SaharBen
0xd039d8172f8f48d71d28cdc716ef02f015a9cc5b
- Realised P&L
- $-68.09
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $66.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.175 | $38.89 | −$1.11 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.715 | $9.79 | −$0.21 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.695 | $9.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.300 | $8.33 | −$1.67 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.92at 0.446US military action against Iran before July?
- +$33.33at 0.600US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$4.13at 0.570Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
- +$0.31at 0.941Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
- +$0.06at 0.940Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 13:57 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999996 | $30.00 |
| 10-30 13:55 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 13:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out? | BUY | 0.7099999517 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 13:45 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 13:41 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $10.00 |
| 03-20 22:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.02 |
| 03-20 22:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 03-20 22:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $4.99 |
| 03-20 19:55 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $30.00 |
| 03-20 19:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $4.99 |
| 03-20 19:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $9.51 |
| 03-20 19:32 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2099999861 | $10.00 |
| 03-20 19:32 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5999999976 | $50.00 |
| 01-28 23:10 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999944 | $31.93 |
| 01-28 23:10 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999983 | $60.00 |