Serega-pro
0xcfb502224876900f577704a19580ec67f0877d2d
- Realised P&L
- $-33.7k
- Volume
- $1.89M
- Markets traded
- 792
- Open portfolio
- $31.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded792
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.1kat 0.709Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$4.5kat 0.790Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?
- +$4.2kat 0.264Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
- +$3.1kat 0.426Kash Patel out by June 30?
- +$2.6kat 0.668Will Russia win Intervision 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:32 | Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.329999967 | $3.00 |
| 10-31 21:32 | Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $50.00 |
| 10-23 02:52 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4029687985 | $200.00 |
| 10-23 02:00 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3997957044 | $200.00 |
| 10-22 21:26 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $445.00 |
| 10-21 03:30 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 03:26 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 15:29 | Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999935 | $4.00 |
| 10-14 17:05 | Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999998 | $78.00 |
| 10-14 17:05 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 10-14 16:16 | Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 16:14 | Will Conor McGregor rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 04:16 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $2.00 |
| 10-11 18:32 | Will Erling Braut Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 04:08 | Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |