TR422
0xcf40de117005d877182a446d73844cca3072004c
- Realised P&L
- $-6.1k
- Volume
- $168.0k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $13.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.425 | $4.7k | −$277.79 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.155 | 0.255 | $4.1k | +$1.6k |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.285 | $2.8k | +$50.00 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.024 | $1.3k | −$898.47 |
| Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Western Conference? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.395 | $339.30 | +$108.10 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.110 | $85.00 | +$15.45 |
| Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.153 | $55.87 | +$4.75 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.089 | $41.90 | −$1.26 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.026 | $38.97 | −$211.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.230Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
- +$1.2kat 0.427Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$162.32at 0.438Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?
- +$65.85at 0.820Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?
- +$0.38at 0.998Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 09:52 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.048 | $24.00 |
| 10-19 09:52 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.048 | $48.00 |
| 10-19 09:51 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.048 | $201.60 |
| 10-18 11:32 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0411913817 | $107.62 |
| 10-18 11:31 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.09 | $69.54 |
| 10-18 11:14 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0966650365 | $28.86 |
| 10-18 11:13 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0381525728 | $117.06 |
| 10-18 11:10 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0835804562 | $13.41 |
| 10-18 11:10 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.039 | $390.00 |
| 10-16 11:07 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0374418943 | $529.81 |
| 10-16 11:04 | Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? | BUY | 0.146 | $21.90 |
| 10-14 14:06 | Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? | BUY | 0.1365607477 | $29.22 |
| 10-14 13:44 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Western Conference? | BUY | 0.2691579646 | $231.20 |
| 10-09 09:23 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $600.00 |
| 10-09 09:18 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.1k |