bignuttruck
0xcf3ab1d53e2b1dc5aa7d6481f4960476d60251fc
- Realised P&L
- $-32.69
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 166
- Open portfolio
- $7.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded166
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.41at 0.170Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?
- +$23.54at 0.512Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
- +$17.40at 0.130Will Trump say "Bin Laden" during September?
- +$10.78at 0.170Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
- +$10.50at 0.160Congress passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 02:54 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 06-19 23:17 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.8099999931 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 17:24 | Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? | BUY | 0.623 | $18.69 |
| 04-02 05:34 | Will Trump say "Palestine" in April? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 03-08 05:04 | Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15) | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 03-08 05:04 | Will Trump say "Islamic Revolutionary Guard" or "Iranian Revolutionary Guard" this week? (March 15) | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 03-08 05:03 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.6990017973 | $5.00 |
| 03-08 05:01 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | SELL | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 03-01 18:07 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 03-01 18:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $1.56 |
| 02-28 18:56 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.80 |
| 02-23 02:37 | Will Trump say "Scam" or "Hoax" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.00 |
| 02-12 00:43 | Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.04 |
| 02-06 02:12 | Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 03:44 | Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.8099999838 | $4.00 |