0xceef9d92e9ae0bf1d29c94e2eb87630a03ae6a4d
0xceef9d92e9ae0bf1d29c94e2eb87630a03ae6a4d
- Realised P&L
- $-2.11
- Volume
- $264.88
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $3.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.973 | $3.60 | +$2.60 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.065 | $0.25 | −$1.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.73at 0.217Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.278Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $502.50 Week of September 28 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:22 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2909999252 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:09 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 08:09 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:06 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 16:04 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 20:03 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:49 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:29 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:29 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 01:41 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 05:29 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:07 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:06 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:04 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |