PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

perkele

0xcec653eeb6f808e283724ad072337d2f28bda1a6

Realised P&L
$-64.47
Volume
$2.6k
Markets traded
52
Open portfolio
$0.29

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded52
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample28 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration75.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? · Yes0.0700.015$0.21−$0.79
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4700.034$0.07−$0.93
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET · Down0.3560.000$0.00−$2.00
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00−$10.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET · Down0.2320.000$0.00−$1.00
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$1.00
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? · ETH0.2200.000$0.00−$1.00
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5PM ET · Up0.3600.000$0.00−$1.00
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET · Up0.2500.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET · Down0.5480.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET · Up0.2000.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET · Up0.3400.000$0.00−$1.00
US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$8.00
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6PM ET · Down0.1300.000$0.00−$4.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-14 11:07Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ETBUY0.2$1.00
07-14 11:06Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?SELL0.999$1.12
07-13 20:31Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?BUY0.889999911$1.00
07-13 10:28Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ETBUY0.8799999648$1.00
07-13 09:35Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ETBUY0.33999983$1.00
07-13 09:34Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ETSELL0.2$0.77
07-13 09:33Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ETBUY0.2599998648$1.00
07-13 09:13Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.283$1.35
03-26 22:51US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.1699999702$4.00
03-26 22:51US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.1699999702$4.00
03-17 13:28Negative GDP growth in 2026?SELL0.18$1.00
03-16 18:01Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETSELL0.999$2.40
03-16 18:01Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETBUY0.54$0.97
03-16 17:56Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETBUY0.4099998237$0.97
03-14 07:01Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETBUY0.2299998275$0.98