fp_
0xceb6e33cf660c502f3bb8e1f69e4bbfa923262e7
- Realised P&L
- $253.54
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $371.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.595 | $371.88 | +$21.88 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Megaquake by December 31? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$122.41at 0.290Trump wins every swing state?
- +$62.14at 0.420Fed rate cut by May 1?
- +$58.97at 0.145Fed rate cut by June 12?
- +$53.21at 0.530Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$30.00at 0.250Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 11:32 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.56 | $350.00 |
| 01-02 21:19 | Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? | BUY | 0.7295136562 | $75.00 |
| 12-12 22:30 | Megaquake by December 31? | BUY | 0.1052173833 | $11.00 |
| 08-07 20:17 | Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? | BUY | 0.0699999979 | $30.00 |
| 11-05 20:34 | Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0290000001 | $10.00 |
| 11-05 17:48 | Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1891043989 | $50.00 |
| 10-25 19:45 | Trump wins every swing state? | BUY | 0.2899999961 | $50.00 |
| 02-10 21:33 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5299999966 | $60.00 |
| 02-10 21:33 | Fed rate cut by June 12? | BUY | 0.1449999881 | $10.00 |
| 02-10 21:30 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 02-10 21:27 | Fed rate cut by May 1? | BUY | 0.4199999951 | $45.00 |