PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

fp_

0xceb6e33cf660c502f3bb8e1f69e4bbfa923262e7

Realised P&L
$253.54
Volume
$2.4k
Markets traded
11
Open portfolio
$371.88

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar10.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded11
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.5600.595$371.88+$21.88
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00−$30.00
Megaquake by December 31? · Yes0.1050.000$0.00−$11.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-09 11:32Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?BUY0.56$350.00
01-02 21:19Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship?BUY0.7295136562$75.00
12-12 22:30Megaquake by December 31?BUY0.1052173833$11.00
08-07 20:17Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?BUY0.0699999979$30.00
11-05 20:34Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election?BUY0.0290000001$10.00
11-05 17:48Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.1891043989$50.00
10-25 19:45Trump wins every swing state?BUY0.2899999961$50.00
02-10 21:33Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.5299999966$60.00
02-10 21:33Fed rate cut by June 12?BUY0.1449999881$10.00
02-10 21:30Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?BUY0.25$10.00
02-10 21:27Fed rate cut by May 1?BUY0.4199999951$45.00