lsd25
0xceab0b8b28e003d985fb8350e8e8dba8e53adeef
- Realised P&L
- $-471.00
- Volume
- $12.8k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $238.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Yes | 0.739 | 0.585 | $204.74 | −$53.75 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.917 | 0.961 | $28.83 | +$1.33 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.995 | $5.06 | +$0.06 |
| U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? · No | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$257.53 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No | 0.599 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$133.18 |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$425.84at 0.269Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$43.93at 0.770Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$36.65at 0.761U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
- +$33.00at 0.670Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$28.72at 0.940Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 22:33 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $89.28 |
| 08-27 17:48 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 08-27 14:21 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9829999913 | $5.00 |
| 05-31 20:00 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $147.07 |
| 04-25 14:44 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | SELL | 0.92 | $75.23 |
| 01-09 09:52 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.77 | $23.10 |
| 01-09 09:52 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.76 | $152.71 |
| 01-08 21:45 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.5899999985 | $12.17 |
| 01-08 21:44 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.41 | $12.17 |
| 01-08 21:44 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $12.47 |
| 01-07 12:28 | U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 01-07 12:28 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | SELL | 0.3707015665 | $270.01 |
| 01-03 07:35 | Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999746 | $7.78 |
| 12-12 16:13 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | BUY | 0.2099999206 | $1.64 |
| 12-02 03:51 | Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%? | BUY | 0.82 | $127.53 |