PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

lsd25

0xceab0b8b28e003d985fb8350e8e8dba8e53adeef

Realised P&L
$-471.00
Volume
$12.8k
Markets traded
50
Open portfolio
$238.63

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded50
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration54.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample46 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)87.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration85.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Yes0.7390.585$204.74$53.75
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? · No0.9170.961$28.83+$1.33
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? · No0.9830.995$5.06+$0.06
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? · No0.5400.000$0.00$257.53
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No0.5990.000$0.00$133.18
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? · No0.4300.000$0.00$7.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-04 22:33Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?BUY0.71$89.28
08-27 17:48Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?BUY0.9$4.50
08-27 14:21Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?BUY0.9829999913$5.00
05-31 20:00Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.77$147.07
04-25 14:44U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? SELL0.92$75.23
01-09 09:52U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY0.77$23.10
01-09 09:52U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY0.76$152.71
01-08 21:45Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?BUY0.5899999985$12.17
01-08 21:44Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?SELL0.41$12.17
01-08 21:44Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?BUY0.4199999832$12.47
01-07 12:28U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?BUY0.54$10.80
01-07 12:28Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?SELL0.3707015665$270.01
01-03 07:35Maduro out by January 31, 2026?BUY0.4299999746$7.78
12-12 16:13Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?BUY0.2099999206$1.64
12-02 03:51Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?BUY0.82$127.53