TheIronBank
0xcda125f672ebca9892ff741e40a304fae903d9ad
- Realised P&L
- $-8.3k
- Volume
- $617.8k
- Markets traded
- 672
- Open portfolio
- $78.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded672
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.175 | $35.00 | −$69.00 |
| Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? · Yes | 0.625 | 0.757 | $30.28 | +$5.28 |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%? · Yes | 0.625 | 0.035 | $7.57 | −$129.57 |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · No | 0.859 | 0.185 | $5.11 | −$18.62 |
| Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.009 | $0.73 | −$35.26 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? · No | 0.437 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? · No | 0.557 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$603.62 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? · No | 0.522 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.697 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? · No | 0.247 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$395.99 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.91 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · No | 0.804 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$884.12 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · No | 0.653 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$270.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.324Israel military action against Iran before July?
- +$960.91at 0.444Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31?
- +$746.44at 0.562Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?
- +$664.78at 0.860Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?
- +$609.46at 0.614Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-18 06:19 | Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $14.00 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6671572923 | $94.42 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | SELL | 0.0107766589 | $116.96 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.242116933 | $155.17 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.0236267287 | $185.89 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $213.00 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.9629803 | $385.19 |
| 04-18 06:18 | NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | SELL | 0.2029327248 | $209.89 |
| 04-18 06:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.6 | $464.41 |
| 04-07 19:45 | Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7987330799 | $119.79 |
| 04-07 17:47 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.9 | $112.50 |
| 04-07 12:38 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 04-07 12:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.87 | $155.40 |
| 04-07 04:29 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.12 | $120.00 |
| 04-06 15:53 | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $52.00 |