0xcd8b08d861c11d2a13621354cfb87e9bb6fc91f3
0xcd8b08d861c11d2a13621354cfb87e9bb6fc91f3
- Realised P&L
- $14.11
- Volume
- $490.53
- Markets traded
- 137
- Open portfolio
- $8.92
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded137
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.470 | 0.945 | $2.83 | +$1.43 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.920 | $2.71 | +$1.71 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21? · Up | 0.620 | 0.755 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? · Yes | 0.691 | 0.725 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? · No | 0.316 | 0.275 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · No | 0.540 | 0.130 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 08:40 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 00:39 | Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.6909995239 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 00:36 | Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.3159999962 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 04:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 18:08 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 07:48 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 23:48 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:33 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 06:29 | Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:25 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 13:45 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.7089999121 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 05:34 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 21:29 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 13:28 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 17:27 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |