arijitsinghm723
0xcd39974146dba3448b6a911309c26758e9e8df1d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.88
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $11.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.958 | $5.75 | +$0.01 |
| Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.924 | 0.926 | $4.63 | +$0.01 |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.385 | $0.91 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.53at 0.442Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$15.53at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$4.60at 0.632Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
- +$3.70at 0.659Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
- +$1.57at 0.622Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 05:00 | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.47 | $1.10 |
| 09-16 10:58 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.901 | $4.60 |
| 09-16 10:55 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.835 | $6.01 |
| 09-05 08:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $7.65 |
| 08-06 12:14 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.2500291293 | $15.62 |
| 08-05 20:50 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 17:32 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2079999717 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 10:35 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.177 | $4.94 |
| 08-05 09:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.9691932281 | $38.07 |
| 08-05 07:56 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1809999847 | $7.90 |
| 08-04 18:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999929 | $22.00 |
| 08-04 18:23 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.335 | $10.10 |
| 08-04 14:01 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.3317810073 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 11:44 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $20.43 |
| 08-04 00:03 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6676510778 | $22.00 |