Lyf4ever
0xcd2fb0db9fda1a0ce73cc5f6f32f3946588cfe3e
- Realised P&L
- $160.01
- Volume
- $20.2k
- Markets traded
- 225
- Open portfolio
- $32.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded225
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? · No | 0.080 | 0.949 | $12.34 | +$11.30 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.160 | $6.40 | −$0.80 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.063 | $5.04 | −$4.16 |
| Blue wave in 2026? · No | 0.410 | 0.255 | $2.86 | −$1.74 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.051 | $2.30 | −$0.86 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.045 | $1.80 | −$3.40 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.150 | 0.125 | $1.25 | −$0.25 |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.075 | $0.37 | −$0.62 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.038 | $0.27 | −$0.78 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$72.50at 0.310US bank failure by March 31?
- +$70.99at 0.734Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 November 24-30?
- +$41.00at 0.180Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
- +$38.50at 0.020Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight?
- +$38.30at 0.453Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-01 17:54 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $4.60 |
| 03-01 17:44 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 03-01 17:44 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 03-01 17:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 03-01 17:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 03-01 17:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 03-01 17:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | BUY | 0.51 | $20.40 |
| 02-28 19:26 | Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | BUY | 0.7899999935 | $14.62 |
| 02-28 19:25 | Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | BUY | 0.79 | $4.74 |
| 02-28 19:22 | Khamenei seen in public by March 3? | BUY | 0.85 | $34.00 |
| 02-28 19:21 | Khamenei seen in public by March 2? | BUY | 0.86 | $34.40 |
| 02-28 19:21 | Khamenei seen in public by March 1? | BUY | 0.9 | $12.60 |
| 02-28 19:21 | Khamenei seen in public by February 28? | BUY | 0.969 | $19.38 |
| 02-24 04:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 02-24 04:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | BUY | 0.1078920985 | $10.00 |