Kepochnik
0xcd1c59f55401336462f8a144e90b2124cb1f61d7
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $388.5k
- Markets traded
- 218
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded218
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? · No | 0.943 | 0.966 | $512.02 | +$12.02 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.936 | $492.82 | −$7.18 |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.014 | $44.71 | −$55.26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.165 | $33.00 | −$32.00 |
| Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.780 | $23.40 | +$3.60 |
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · Yes | 0.272 | 0.070 | $7.72 | −$22.28 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.624 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.290Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
- +$1.3kat 0.639Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$564.73at 0.556Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
- +$529.90at 0.345Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven
- +$506.92at 0.496Maduro out by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 16:48 | UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.689999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-02 20:23 | Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? | BUY | 0.9428428987 | $500.00 |
| 09-02 20:23 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9496283155 | $500.00 |
| 07-30 12:41 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $60.15 |
| 07-30 12:37 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $155.11 |
| 07-30 12:37 | Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7 | $267.60 |
| 07-27 21:55 | Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 07-19 20:11 | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.29 | $580.00 |
| 07-19 19:19 | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.5 | $1.0k |
| 07-19 19:13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.3974073255 | $673.57 |
| 07-19 17:15 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4129999996 | $400.00 |
| 07-19 17:12 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4129999997 | $300.00 |
| 07-11 20:34 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.75 | $103.00 |
| 07-11 18:58 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5749999964 | $60.00 |
| 07-10 20:50 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.955 | $1.7k |