PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Kepochnik

0xcd1c59f55401336462f8a144e90b2124cb1f61d7

Realised P&L
$-4.0k
Volume
$388.5k
Markets traded
218
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded218
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? · No0.9430.966$512.02+$12.02
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.9500.936$492.82$7.18
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0310.014$44.71$55.26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.3250.165$33.00$32.00
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes0.6600.780$23.40+$3.60
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · Yes0.2720.070$7.72$22.28
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yes0.6240.000$0.00$150.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-05 16:48UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.689999999$100.00
09-02 20:23Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?BUY0.9428428987$500.00
09-02 20:23Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9496283155$500.00
07-30 12:41Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL0.94$60.15
07-30 12:37Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.91$155.11
07-30 12:37Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?SELL0.7$267.60
07-27 21:55Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?BUY0.66$6.60
07-19 20:11Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreSELL0.29$580.00
07-19 19:19Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.5$1.0k
07-19 19:13Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.3974073255$673.57
07-19 17:15Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4129999996$400.00
07-19 17:12Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4129999997$300.00
07-11 20:34Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceBUY0.75$103.00
07-11 18:58Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.5749999964$60.00
07-10 20:50Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceSELL0.955$1.7k