0xccf393a100384295c579f8996cafa4ba6bc37627
- Realised P&L
- $-9.41
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 179
- Open portfolio
- $20.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded179
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.515 | 0.572 | $10.64 | +$1.05 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? · No | 0.986 | 0.990 | $2.67 | +$0.01 |
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.991 | 0.994 | $2.06 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.835 | $1.67 | +$0.13 |
| Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.988 | 0.998 | $1.09 | +$0.01 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No | 0.992 | 0.997 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Colorado vs. Northwestern: 1H O/U 17.5 · Over | 0.998 | 0.951 | $0.96 | −$0.05 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.737 | 0.449 | $0.54 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.40at 0.748Will Eastleigh FC win on 2026-04-18?
- +$3.12at 0.747Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?
- +$2.11at 0.844US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.92at 0.825Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$1.73at 0.749Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 02:35 | Colorado vs. Northwestern: 1H O/U 17.5 | BUY | 0.9979990613 | $1.01 |
| 09-19 14:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9859999133 | $2.66 |
| 09-16 16:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9919995238 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 06:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $2.57 |
| 09-16 03:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.990999998 | $1.47 |
| 09-15 15:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5179999191 | $2.24 |
| 09-15 10:20 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9909995017 | $1.07 |
| 09-15 04:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.70 |
| 09-15 03:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.66 |
| 09-15 03:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.27 |
| 09-15 03:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.35 |
| 09-14 19:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9919993481 | $1.12 |
| 09-14 18:32 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8599999694 | $2.25 |
| 09-14 16:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9939993322 | $1.03 |
| 09-14 14:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5139999005 | $1.87 |