0xa594823b16928A0dc394aBA22485Ad7e8337f854-1763524358059
0xcc438f6f730c0dfb7eb4d2c48253397081dbdc2f
- Realised P&L
- $-132.43
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $176.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.954 | 0.958 | $89.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.855 | $20.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.993 | $19.86 | +$0.10 |
| Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? · No | 0.640 | 0.885 | $17.70 | +$4.90 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.594 | 0.440 | $14.80 | −$5.20 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.889 | $8.89 | −$0.30 |
| Will Mark Zuckerberg attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? · No | 0.699 | 0.440 | $6.16 | −$3.62 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · No | 0.362 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$146.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.27at 0.897Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
- +$8.99at 0.690Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
- +$6.50at 0.675Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
- +$4.89at 0.100Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
- +$4.60at 0.770Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 10:57 | Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 09-22 10:44 | Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 09-21 07:10 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $19.76 |
| 09-20 08:27 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.07 | $7.95 |
| 09-03 09:42 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 7? | BUY | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 09-03 09:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8499999787 | $20.00 |
| 09-03 09:14 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.953999995 | $89.00 |
| 07-24 14:30 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 07-24 14:06 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $8.80 |
| 07-24 06:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0857142122 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 05:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 07-24 05:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $2.55 |
| 07-24 05:21 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 07-24 02:33 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 07-24 02:30 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999655 | $14.00 |