0xcC3ef03D700F65F613848506Ff2bDB6F1B527304-1763827508452
0xcc3ef03d700f65f613848506ff2bdb6f1b527304
- Realised P&L
- $-284.33
- Volume
- $20.5k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $40.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.007 | $18.53 | −$29.37 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.006 | $9.75 | −$47.25 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.004 | $7.58 | −$86.63 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.003 | $4.24 | −$57.58 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? · No | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.00 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.357 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.35 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.94 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.11 |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance · Belgium | 0.262 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$77.48at 0.043Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$72.35at 0.333Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$59.88at 0.093North Korea missile launch by December 31?
- +$45.00at 0.550Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$9.37at 0.914Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 20:39 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2624999813 | $10.00 |
| 06-08 21:50 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.25 |
| 05-30 18:16 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.999 | $108.58 |
| 05-30 17:54 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |
| 05-30 17:21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 05-03 12:56 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0069241528 | $2.50 |
| 01-16 07:09 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.11 |
| 01-16 07:08 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? | BUY | 0.0049082453 | $10.00 |
| 01-13 14:13 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? | BUY | 0.0079067009 | $5.00 |
| 01-13 14:12 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison? | BUY | 0.0277850671 | $5.40 |
| 01-05 01:23 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? | BUY | 0.0512755551 | $1.00 |
| 01-01 17:35 | Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $13.19 |
| 01-01 17:35 | Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 01-01 17:28 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.0386575087 | $3.02 |
| 12-27 04:45 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.0474352036 | $43.60 |