nibelung.retired
0xcbab47f889ffffbb603f600a5feeb0eca0cc9a8a
- Realised P&L
- $-34.3k
- Volume
- $3.39M
- Markets traded
- 488
- Open portfolio
- $8.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded488
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.1kat 0.800US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$9.5kat 0.959MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.9kat 0.920Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
- +$5.8kat 0.939Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$3.6kat 0.732Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 18:37 | Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.73 |
| 07-19 16:49 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | BUY | 0.14 | $92.95 |
| 06-27 04:14 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.99 | $77.28 |
| 06-26 20:17 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? | BUY | 0.997 | $518.44 |
| 06-25 15:52 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | BUY | 0.11935173 | $520.66 |
| 06-25 02:12 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | SELL | 0.1207184104 | $548.92 |
| 06-24 01:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | SELL | 0.51 | $20.20 |
| 06-24 01:07 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | SELL | 0.52 | $623.83 |
| 06-23 20:50 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | SELL | 0.5684695612 | $1.0k |
| 06-23 16:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | SELL | 0.52 | $114.40 |
| 06-22 16:34 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? | BUY | 0.97 | $43.65 |
| 06-17 18:01 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.41 | $79.80 |
| 06-17 14:09 | Will Tony Thurmond finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? | SELL | 0.999 | $31.26 |
| 06-17 14:09 | Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? | SELL | 0.99 | $5.58 |
| 06-17 14:09 | Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? | SELL | 0.999 | $34.68 |