0xa2748578b0c98dB37b0308440bad205669f9C69f
0xca8a0869c04e2c6430404675b922e53add90cc81
- Realised P&L
- $-21.4k
- Volume
- $744.5k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.160 | $2.5k | −$1.5k |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.021 | $242.31 | −$2.8k |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.006 | $7.11 | −$12.89 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.009 | $0.81 | −$4.29 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.853Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
- +$-100.00at 0.824US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$-817.99at 0.290Will Taylor Swift attend Kamala's Pennsylvania rally?
- +$-4.6kat 0.351Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$-9.1kat 0.453Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 21:31 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2649495294 | $2.3k |
| 04-11 18:22 | Trump out as President by April 30? | SELL | 0.0093010404 | $988.46 |
| 04-11 18:22 | Trump out as President by April 30? | SELL | 0.0119603701 | $1.5k |
| 04-07 20:24 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.023 | $230.00 |
| 04-07 20:13 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.022 | $331.76 |
| 04-07 19:51 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.0209981429 | $587.95 |
| 04-07 19:47 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.012 | $300.00 |
| 04-07 19:46 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.0188781758 | $943.91 |
| 04-07 19:05 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.019426896 | $291.40 |
| 04-07 19:03 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.018 | $72.00 |
| 03-22 19:59 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 03-22 19:57 | Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.91 |
| 03-22 16:04 | Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.851651272 | $9.0k |
| 03-22 16:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.23 | $9.4k |
| 03-08 07:13 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0182932908 | $20.00 |