0xca4c228f01e1c2f754f13cc928831d9994fb186f
0xca4c228f01e1c2f754f13cc928831d9994fb186f
- Realised P&L
- $2.93
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 415
- Open portfolio
- $30.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded415
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.88at 0.782US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.35at 0.880Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
- +$0.80at 0.560Will Jon Bernthal or Tom Holland say "World Cup" on Hot Ones?
- +$0.63at 0.826Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$0.52at 0.659Will the announcers say "Cleat" during the Australia vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 06:11 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 30% or more? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 14:45 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.9419992238 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 21:14 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.01 |
| 09-15 17:39 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.9599996928 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 14:42 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $0.99 |
| 09-04 06:36 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 05:35 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 02:26 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.96 |
| 09-01 16:13 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 15:45 | Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August? | SELL | 0.906592233 | $0.93 |
| 09-01 14:39 | Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August? | BUY | 0.9629999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 14:22 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.8499994475 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 08:54 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 02:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 02:38 | Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.92 | $0.99 |