PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

armadanoob

0xca41cc2951ff7d9417562b447d87755dfe273af9

Realised P&L
$-797.21
Volume
$715.1k
Markets traded
668
Open portfolio
$21.30

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded668
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0950.085$8.50$1.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2500.140$5.60$4.40
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · Yes0.0120.034$5.10+$3.30
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? · No0.3400.255$0.75$0.25
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No0.0430.028$0.64$0.36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1000.041$0.41$0.59
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes0.3400.105$0.31$0.69
Counter-Strike: Voca vs regain (BO3) - BLAST Open North American Qualifier Playoffs · regain0.2500.000$0.00$1.00
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Group A · paiN Academy0.2400.000$0.00$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET · Down0.0320.000$0.00$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET · Down0.3310.000$0.00$4.94
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 · 9z0.4760.000$0.00$41.00
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 · Sinners0.4700.000$0.00$2.35
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET · Down0.0400.000$0.00$1.00
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 · B80.2560.000$0.00$24.96

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 19:42Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.0272672178$4.09
07-29 17:15Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2549999828$10.00
07-29 17:14Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2539999858$10.00
07-29 17:13Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.0060000001$1.00
07-29 17:13Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2549998508$1.00
07-28 11:11Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group BBUY0.7899999826$5.00
07-28 11:10Counter-Strike: GenOne vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group StageBUY0.1399998824$1.00
07-28 11:09Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #6 PlayoffsBUY0.1799998704$1.00
07-28 10:35Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?SELL0.014$5.68
07-27 14:30Trump out as President before 2027?SELL0.07$7.00
07-27 11:19Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?SELL0.08$9.00
07-23 13:21Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?SELL0.9$20.45
07-22 16:14Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?BUY0.2799999854$10.00
07-21 19:02Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?BUY0.1641852603$50.00
07-21 18:56Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?BUY0.1047551982$10.00