0xc978d79d951231917f3ac4673bb74f28e7bdaa84
0xc978d79d951231917f3ac4673bb74f28e7bdaa84
- Realised P&L
- $8.3k
- Volume
- $713.0k
- Markets traded
- 239
- Open portfolio
- $17.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded239
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.784Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$2.3kat 0.897Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$1.9kat 0.878Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$1.0kat 0.923Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
- +$825.21at 0.867Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 16:03 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9 | $163.18 |
| 09-20 16:02 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8999999253 | $4.82 |
| 09-20 16:02 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8999999742 | $24.41 |
| 09-18 01:16 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $434.53 |
| 09-17 07:16 | Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.9 | $55.19 |
| 09-16 22:43 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.73 | $129.94 |
| 09-16 20:22 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $439.07 |
| 09-16 01:35 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $9.18 |
| 09-16 01:35 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $4.68 |
| 09-16 01:35 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0496158286 | $9.18 |
| 09-16 01:35 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $4.68 |
| 09-10 18:30 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9829999999 | $1.5k |
| 09-10 18:29 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.807 | $9.90 |
| 09-09 23:47 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8427996984 | $559.45 |
| 09-09 19:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4699999995 | $394.70 |