NeoSay10
0xc9751b5f25e1ecd88ec4630d19422b58d0562c68
- Realised P&L
- $21.1k
- Volume
- $1.47M
- Markets traded
- 1,529
- Open portfolio
- $10.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,529
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.944 | 0.963 | $3.1k | +$57.78 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No | 0.968 | 0.996 | $2.6k | +$70.47 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.935 | $1.9k | +$90.00 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.789 | 0.957 | $1.8k | +$318.25 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.842 | $1.0k | +$24.30 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.692 | 0.870 | $202.21 | +$41.44 |
| Will Trump post "Allah" on Truth Social this week? · No | 0.060 | 0.860 | $85.95 | +$79.95 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.532 | 0.860 | $30.20 | +$11.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.020Will Moldova participate in Eurovision 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.002Will Everton vs. Mansfield Town end in a draw?
- +$1.9kat 0.035Will Malawi vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?
- +$820.00at 0.590Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing?
- +$731.71at 0.999Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 01:55 | Will Trump post "Allah" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 09-17 00:33 | Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-17 00:32 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-17 00:32 | Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-17 00:24 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-17 00:24 | Will Trump say "Egg" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-17 00:17 | Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.3 | $5.23 |
| 09-17 00:09 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 09-17 00:09 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-16 23:57 | Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" this week? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 09-16 18:58 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.98 | $6.86 |
| 09-16 18:57 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.9854151977 | $232.00 |
| 09-16 18:36 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.99 | $342.42 |
| 09-10 21:22 | Will Oracle say "Security" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.999 | $44.95 |
| 09-10 21:22 | Will Oracle say "Health" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.999 | $44.95 |