NeoSay10
0xc9751b5f25e1ecd88ec4630d19422b58d0562c68
- Realised P&L
- $21.1k
- Volume
- $1.46M
- Markets traded
- 1,511
- Open portfolio
- $19.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,511
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.792 | $6.3k | +$2.3k |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.944 | 0.956 | $3.0k | +$35.54 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No | 0.968 | 0.976 | $2.5k | +$20.05 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.935 | $1.9k | +$90.00 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.789 | 0.887 | $1.7k | +$187.15 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.207 | $1.7k | −$2.3k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No | 0.950 | 1.000 | $1.6k | +$78.16 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.842 | $1.0k | +$23.69 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.692 | 0.865 | $201.04 | +$40.28 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.532 | 0.775 | $27.22 | +$8.52 |
| Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? · Yes | 0.505 | 0.013 | $1.69 | −$61.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.020Will Moldova participate in Eurovision 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.002Will Everton vs. Mansfield Town end in a draw?
- +$1.9kat 0.035Will Malawi vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?
- +$820.00at 0.590Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing?
- +$732.04at 0.999Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 21:20 | Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $19.24 |
| 07-16 17:50 | Will Leavitt say "Administration" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? | BUY | 0.988 | $49.40 |
| 07-16 17:40 | Will Leavitt say "President" 30+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.00 |
| 07-16 17:40 | Will Leavitt say "President" 30+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? | BUY | 0.9898343274 | $238.99 |
| 07-16 17:29 | Will Leavitt say "President" 20+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? | BUY | 0.9851026423 | $620.38 |
| 07-16 09:50 | Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.7 | $24.39 |
| 07-15 22:55 | Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.67 | $30.15 |
| 07-15 22:46 | Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.9874759064 | $43.03 |
| 07-15 22:46 | Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.9882647989 | $43.74 |
| 07-14 23:04 | Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? | BUY | 0.6961987154 | $106.23 |
| 07-14 20:28 | Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Nutmegs" during the France vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-13 21:54 | Will anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E2? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 07-13 21:52 | Will anyone say "Power" 5+ times during Big Brother E2? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 07-13 17:26 | Will "Valorant" be said during the MSI 2026 Grand Finals? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.45 |
| 07-13 17:26 | Will "Mejai" be said during the MSI 2026 Grand Finals? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.45 |