Crayon
0xc95cd16e8c0edcc9090b13030d3e492163db5e0b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $251.1k
- Markets traded
- 274
- Open portfolio
- $973.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded274
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.56at 0.500MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$31.67at 0.888Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?
- +$23.35at 0.800Nothing Ever Happens: December
- +$21.26at 0.368Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
- +$16.44at 0.500US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 04:01 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $54.00 |
| 10-01 04:01 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.925 | $37.00 |
| 10-01 04:00 | AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $16.80 |
| 10-01 04:00 | Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $11.14 |
| 10-01 03:58 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.73 | $36.51 |
| 10-01 03:58 | Iran coup attempt by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $18.01 |
| 10-01 03:57 | Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $32.42 |
| 10-01 03:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 10-01 03:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 10-01 03:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 10-01 03:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.17 |
| 10-01 03:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.08 |
| 10-01 03:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 10-01 03:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 03:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.11 |