Crayon
0xc95cd16e8c0edcc9090b13030d3e492163db5e0b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $197.7k
- Markets traded
- 213
- Open portfolio
- $949.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded213
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.56at 0.500MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$31.67at 0.888Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?
- +$23.35at 0.800Nothing Ever Happens: December
- +$16.44at 0.500US strike on Colombia by December 31?
- +$16.28at 0.918Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:53 | Iran coup attempt by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $36.00 |
| 08-02 21:51 | Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1683333333 | $10.10 |
| 08-02 21:46 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | SELL | 0.73 | $29.20 |
| 08-02 21:45 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 08-01 07:35 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | SELL | 0.76 | $15.21 |
| 08-01 07:30 | Iran coup attempt by December 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $34.80 |
| 08-01 07:26 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 08-01 07:25 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.25 | $12.50 |
| 08-01 07:22 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.649 | $32.45 |
| 08-01 07:18 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $44.50 |
| 07-31 06:33 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.268648 | $13.43 |
| 07-31 06:32 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 07-30 03:20 | Iran coup attempt by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.19 |
| 07-30 03:10 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.33 | $16.50 |
| 07-30 03:08 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $32.50 |