PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Crayon

0xc95cd16e8c0edcc9090b13030d3e492163db5e0b

Realised P&L
$-2.1k
Volume
$251.1k
Markets traded
274
Open portfolio
$973.15

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded274
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · No0.7620.740$125.81−$3.69
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? · No0.8820.925$111.00+$5.20
Iran coup attempt by December 31? · No0.9050.905$108.60−$0.02
AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? · No0.8390.835$100.22−$0.49
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? · No0.8160.815$97.80−$0.13
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No0.7830.805$96.60+$2.65
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No0.8950.925$64.75+$2.08
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · No0.9160.915$64.06−$0.06
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? · No0.8100.850$51.00+$2.40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? · No0.3520.365$36.51+$1.26
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? · No0.2460.225$33.12−$3.07
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No0.1530.185$22.20+$3.86
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No0.1700.160$19.20−$1.14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 1? · Yes0.3300.510$2.55+$0.90
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2? · Yes0.0240.028$2.34+$0.27

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 04:01Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9$54.00
10-01 04:01Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?BUY0.925$37.00
10-01 04:00AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?BUY0.84$16.80
10-01 04:00Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?SELL0.8$11.14
10-01 03:58Iran full airspace closure by December 31?SELL0.73$36.51
10-01 03:58Iran coup attempt by December 31?SELL0.9$18.01
10-01 03:57Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?SELL0.81$32.42
10-01 03:42Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 7?BUY0.26$1.30
10-01 03:41Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 7?BUY0.12$1.20
10-01 03:41Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 7?BUY0.06$1.20
10-01 03:41Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 7?BUY0.039$1.17
10-01 03:41Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 7?BUY0.027$1.08
10-01 03:40Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6?BUY0.23$1.15
10-01 03:40Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 6?BUY0.1$1.00
10-01 03:40Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 6?BUY0.037$1.11