Dertyfry
0xc944a4f58e4626f1598bd8a2b7a75dbb45d8b1cb
- Realised P&L
- $-2.37
- Volume
- $297.87
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $12.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.950 | $4.65 | +$1.32 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.060 | $3.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.295 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.420 | 0.415 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.034 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.461 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.36 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.331 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.55at 0.287Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.77at 0.520Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$1.75at 0.371France vs. England: Team to Win
- +$0.29at 0.247Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 10:39 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 10:38 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $2.00 |
| 10-17 10:37 | Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | BUY | 0.0409523804 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 10:32 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $2.42 |
| 09-06 09:43 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999837 | $3.33 |
| 08-10 18:43 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:51 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 07-20 21:42 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.67 |
| 07-20 21:41 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 22:03 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.90 |
| 07-19 21:28 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3049999692 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:27 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.746 | $4.58 |
| 07-19 01:35 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5909997154 | $2.00 |
| 07-16 19:50 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 19:49 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |