0xc84cdba2b9e702a33492c5f15bbd3dbe93fa2092
- Realised P&L
- $-89.01
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $17.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.59at 0.301US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$38.34at 0.422US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
- +$28.62at 0.640MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$23.57at 0.599Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$17.10at 0.430US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 08:01 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL | 0.96 | $19.20 |
| 07-18 11:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 07-18 11:22 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $95.83 |
| 07-04 20:12 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0609999939 | $9.95 |
| 06-30 18:47 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.67 |
| 06-28 20:24 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.1497406639 | $28.87 |
| 06-24 08:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $34.82 |
| 06-24 08:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $24.87 |
| 06-23 14:44 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999927 | $24.87 |
| 06-22 19:10 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4 | $6.00 |
| 06-22 15:48 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.1499999966 | $34.82 |
| 06-22 15:48 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $24.87 |
| 06-22 15:47 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $24.87 |
| 06-18 17:59 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.30 |
| 06-18 17:56 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.30 |