weapon08
0xc8489bba77ba91994c3d7539e93c0ca089c4dac0
- Realised P&L
- $129.12
- Volume
- $19.5k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $104.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $104.95 | +$0.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.15at 0.447Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14?
- +$36.00at 0.500Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$8.69at 0.838Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?
- +$7.37at 0.754Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$6.44at 0.920US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 03:46 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.991 | $95.14 |
| 09-11 03:45 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $99.10 |
| 09-11 03:40 | Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $104.58 |
| 08-29 06:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $224.55 |
| 08-29 06:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $52.81 |
| 08-29 06:49 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.94 |
| 08-10 07:10 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C or higher on August 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $265.73 |
| 08-10 07:02 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.953 | $19.06 |
| 08-10 06:53 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $181.48 |
| 08-09 03:56 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $284.53 |
| 07-25 07:42 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.90 |
| 07-25 07:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.98 | $29.40 |
| 07-25 07:20 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.961 | $28.83 |
| 07-25 07:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $49.65 |
| 07-25 07:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.745 | $22.35 |