3L41N40
0xc83fc101cc837a655ee200df10e54fb467b7b7a9
- Realised P&L
- $-959.09
- Volume
- $160.5k
- Markets traded
- 176
- Open portfolio
- $986.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded176
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? · No | 0.713 | 0.705 | $120.29 | −$1.37 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.918 | 0.945 | $113.40 | +$3.20 |
| Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? · No | 0.921 | 0.905 | $108.60 | −$1.92 |
| Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.707 | 0.730 | $97.08 | +$3.04 |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.885 | $88.82 | +$0.49 |
| Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.778 | 0.740 | $88.80 | −$4.52 |
| Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.854 | 0.860 | $83.99 | +$0.60 |
| Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.639 | 0.635 | $76.54 | −$0.51 |
| Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? · No | 0.898 | 0.915 | $73.28 | +$1.36 |
| Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.648 | 0.605 | $72.60 | −$5.19 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.458 | 0.430 | $51.60 | −$3.35 |
| Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.239 | 0.190 | $11.40 | −$2.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.03at 0.815Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?
- +$46.68at 0.876Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
- +$32.60at 0.760Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?
- +$21.68at 0.120Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
- +$17.59at 0.875Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 03:13 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.42 | $1.01 |
| 09-20 03:13 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.45 | $28.08 |
| 09-20 03:12 | Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 09-18 05:24 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.41 | $24.60 |
| 09-18 05:24 | Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $0.48 |
| 09-18 05:23 | Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $27.44 |
| 09-18 05:22 | Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $22.02 |
| 09-18 05:20 | Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.76 | $45.60 |
| 09-18 05:19 | Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $7.51 |
| 09-18 05:17 | Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $2.43 |
| 09-18 05:17 | Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $53.05 |
| 09-18 05:16 | Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $50.45 |
| 09-18 05:16 | Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.73 | $36.87 |
| 09-14 20:52 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.42 | $1.02 |
| 09-14 20:50 | Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.63 | $19.40 |