0xc8129d4daa066cfb598da82ea2f398f7d8ef277d
- Realised P&L
- $-2.01
- Volume
- $98.60
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $13.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 1.000 | $4.00 | +$2.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.290 | $2.76 | +$0.76 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.790 | 0.915 | $2.32 | +$0.32 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.230 | 0.125 | $1.09 | −$0.91 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.450 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.63 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$1.02 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.114 | $0.76 | −$1.24 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.130 | $0.44 | −$1.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.13at 0.630Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during remarks in Georgia?
- +$0.92at 0.670Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
- +$0.71at 0.740Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$0.67at 0.750Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
- +$0.62at 0.755Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:30 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:28 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:23 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999441 | $1.61 |
| 08-02 16:22 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 03:54 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599998314 | $1.11 |
| 07-31 19:48 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 11:47 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-30 23:56 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 11:35 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-29 03:05 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 12:45 | Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.45 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 15:57 | Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.47 | $1.41 |
| 07-27 03:11 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999964 | $1.98 |