MelissaCraig1098
0xc7c2e819892c77a9a19ebf8a2f9efd17ae1bfcbe
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $147.4k
- Markets traded
- 194
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded194
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$628.78at 0.130Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$574.78at 0.130Will "Epstein" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)
- +$270.25at 0.670Will Ethena dip to $0.08 by December 31, 2026?
- +$113.16at 0.640Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?
- +$104.47at 0.690Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 07:50 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $600.78 |
| 04-12 20:30 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $188.73 |
| 04-11 09:53 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $127.62 |
| 04-11 09:52 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $654.03 |
| 04-11 09:18 | Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30? | SELL | 0.15 | $3.45 |
| 04-10 22:09 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $162.69 |
| 04-09 13:22 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $619.71 |
| 04-09 13:19 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 04-08 21:28 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $34.50 |
| 04-08 19:35 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.0k |
| 04-08 18:28 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $620.16 |
| 03-30 13:39 | Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $330.33 |
| 03-30 13:29 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $705.90 |
| 03-30 05:20 | Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $334.62 |
| 03-30 01:24 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $696.85 |