0xC7be03AdEE1a68974f5249CE9202d274CEdAEe1D-1774644441203
0xc7be03adee1a68974f5249ce9202d274cedaee1d
- Realised P&L
- $590.14
- Volume
- $20.1k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $280.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.825 | $141.12 | +$11.12 |
| Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? · Yes | 0.738 | 0.680 | $92.17 | −$7.83 |
| Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.295 | $47.20 | +$7.20 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.788 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? · No | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$548.29at 0.320Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- +$135.80at 0.612Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
- +$103.03at 0.660Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
- +$101.99at 0.500Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?
- +$91.39at 0.308Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 16:40 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2817509074 | $124.20 |
| 10-19 18:06 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7660369815 | $210.00 |
| 10-18 11:49 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.787999998 | $50.00 |
| 10-17 18:47 | Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | BUY | 0.25 | $40.00 |
| 10-12 08:24 | Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7377866392 | $100.00 |
| 10-11 22:05 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $120.00 |
| 10-11 22:04 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.6176836053 | $133.22 |
| 10-10 21:42 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999988 | $110.00 |
| 10-10 09:53 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7599999998 | $130.00 |
| 10-09 18:52 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $73.96 |
| 10-08 11:31 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999988 | $70.00 |
| 09-27 18:36 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.1278733917 | $26.14 |
| 09-23 06:12 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 18:05 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.8199999988 | $110.00 |
| 09-12 12:34 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.7918440067 | $100.00 |