DingDongChicken
0xc771d5d878f267ab9c29edcddcc7f4bd50aa6f90
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $100.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,484
- Open portfolio
- $426.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,484
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.817 | 0.675 | $332.64 | −$70.17 |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.085 | $42.84 | −$15.96 |
| Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.086 | $26.38 | −$4.50 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.012 | $11.32 | −$1.74 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No | 0.390 | 0.385 | $9.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.115 | $3.19 | −$1.81 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.075 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$206.21at 0.653Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
- +$106.20at 0.393Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
- +$94.33at 0.514Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
- +$87.46at 0.873Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
- +$85.45at 0.934Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 00:04 | Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? | SELL | 0.075 | $2.33 |
| 10-08 16:43 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 16:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $6.05 |
| 10-05 11:23 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.97 |
| 10-04 12:43 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7299999974 | $40.00 |
| 10-04 12:43 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.072 | $42.98 |
| 10-04 12:41 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7299999942 | $30.00 |
| 10-04 12:41 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $34.61 |
| 10-03 14:17 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 10:54 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 09:14 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $20.00 |
| 10-03 09:12 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $36.19 |
| 10-03 08:55 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $3.00 |
| 10-03 08:55 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 08:05 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $10.00 |