GoenkaG
0xc74594167cfbfe90deb033f10a09a54db7cd5d3a
- Realised P&L
- $-207.57
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $144.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.080 | $115.20 | −$137.60 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.057 | $18.81 | +$8.58 |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.101 | $10.10 | −$24.90 |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$176.00 |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$223.32at 0.302Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$143.38at 0.068Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$28.00at 0.720US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$21.82at 0.190Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$20.72at 0.552Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 17:49 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.44 | $176.00 |
| 07-24 17:42 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.031 | $0.12 |
| 05-22 22:08 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.3499999895 | $20.00 |
| 05-16 21:11 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0077612635 | $5.00 |
| 05-16 20:16 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0649999943 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 20:12 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0739704076 | $15.00 |
| 05-16 19:12 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999935 | $25.00 |
| 05-07 06:22 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $100.00 |
| 05-06 21:31 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2067036948 | $100.00 |
| 04-09 09:45 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.319 | $38.28 |
| 04-09 09:35 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.292 | $7.59 |
| 03-24 20:18 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $90.00 |
| 01-14 20:46 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.53 | $34.00 |
| 01-01 16:19 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1899999896 | $12.19 |
| 06-30 17:43 | Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | BUY | 0.0162835091 | $1.00 |