0xc7038da2a78e55a5434c0197482d7341f12012ef
- Realised P&L
- $-5.09
- Volume
- $112.67
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $13.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.905 | $10.28 | +$5.28 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.770 | 0.949 | $2.40 | +$0.45 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.75 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.540 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.58at 0.237Will Procter & Gamble say "Customer" 5+ times during earnings call?
- +$1.64at 0.730Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.31at 0.699Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.25at 0.590Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?
- +$0.51at 0.797Will Trump say "Hottest" during Michigan remarks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:39 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.75 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 10:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 02:31 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 17:18 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4780438709 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 05:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.449999955 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 20:48 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 12:48 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 19:33 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999958 | $4.98 |
| 07-29 01:55 | Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.38 | $2.66 |
| 07-28 16:39 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.41 |
| 07-28 00:22 | Will Procter & Gamble say "Customer" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.38 |
| 07-27 15:18 | Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |
| 07-27 01:44 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 07-26 13:43 | Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7199999934 | $4.38 |
| 07-26 01:42 | Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.6899999908 | $3.01 |