0xc630ea58db1a0aad51096e96b4c917295e83e576
0xc630ea58db1a0aad51096e96b4c917295e83e576
- Realised P&L
- $3.96
- Volume
- $325.52
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $2.87
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.285 | $0.95 | −$1.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.715 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.70at 0.230US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 18:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 09:57 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 22:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 09:11 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 12:14 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on September 18? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 18:39 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.6199998946 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 10:22 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 23:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 02:55 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 02:01 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 05:06 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | BUY | 0.4699999504 | $1.99 |
| 09-07 20:48 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 10:22 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 16:42 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |